Turning the Tide in Libya: Rival Administrations in a New Round of Conflict

PCC Policy Brief

Ioannou, Ioannis Sotirios & Zenonas Tziarras (2020) Turning the Tide in Libya: Rival Administrations in a New Round of Conflict, PRIO Cyprus Centre Policy Brief, 1. Nicosia: PRIO Cyprus Centre.

After more than a year of efforts, the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) military campaign to capture Tripoli has collapsed. Turkey’s military intervention in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) has been crucial in preventing the fall of Tripoli, turning the tide against the LNA and helping the GNA advance to the east. Turkey’s involvement has also stirred new diplomatic initiatives, enhanced the geopolitical antagonism between Ankara and external supporters of the LNA such as Russia and Egypt, and ushered Libya into a new phase of conflict between the GNA and LNA. Amid possibilities of conflict escalation and challenges to bridging Cairo’s proposed peace initiative and the UN-led peace talks, a win-win formula in Libya will be difficult to negotiate.