The Cyprus Futures scenarios are stories about what could happen in the future – not what will happen (forecasts) or what should happen (proposals or recommendations). They consider the period from 2022 to 2035 in and around Cyprus, including relevant political, economic, social, cultural, environmental, and international dynamics.
The co-authors of the scenarios are a "Scenario Team" of 36 outstanding individual Cypriots from a wide diversity of perspectives, across sectors, professions, generations, beliefs and political views. Half of them are Turkish Cypriot and half are Greek Cypriot, religious minorities are included, and the group is gender balanced. To develop the scenarios, they volunteered several weeks of their time to work constructively together. They gathered for intense conversation over the course of three workshops, followed by collective writing and re-writing and informal ad hoc gatherings.
The assignment of the Scenario Team was to create stories of the future of Cyprus that would be convincing, taking into consideration the realities of the world today. They were not asked to dream and engage in wishful thinking, but rather to create a set of stories that are plausible. They were also asked to make sure these stories would be relevant to the things that Cypriots are concerned about today, and at the same time challenging, presenting new perspectives and angles and bringing underlying issues to the surface.
The result is a collective set of scenarios that none of the Scenario Team members could have crafted on their own and to which they have all contributed. Many ideas were tested and some scenarios that reflected individual hopes or preferences failed the test of plausibility. Those scenarios were not included because this particular group could not be convinced among themselves that these stories could actually happen. This does not mean that this set of scenarios is exhaustive or definitive – a different group might have arrived at different scenarios. Readers of this executive summary and the full report are welcome to consider the possibility of other futures as they reflect on the scenarios presented here.
The aim is for these scenarios to be useful in a wide and inclusive strategic conversation in and around Cyprus to address the challenges facing the island. They offer a map of the possible future landscape of Cyprus and a common language to support fresh and informed dialogue. The publication of the scenarios is not the end of the Cyprus Futures conversation, it is intended to be the beginning.
All publications are available in English, Greek and Turkish and they consist of:
The Cyprus Futures scenarios were developed by a diverse group of 36 Cypriots, who each invested over 15 days of their time on a volunteer basis. The group was facilitated by Reos Partners, using an internationally validated methodology. The project was supported by PRIO Cyprus Centre and Result Mediation Foundation. Funding was provided by the governments of the Netherlands, Norway (via PRIO), and Finland.